Shillong, April 10, 2025: A coalition of global experts on Tuesday expressed deep concern over China’s proposed “Great Bend Dam” on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra in India), warning of devastating ecological, hydrological, and geopolitical consequences for downstream countries like India and Bangladesh. The alarm was raised during a day-long seminar organised by the Asian Confluence titled “Ensuring Water Security, Ecological Integrity, and Disaster Resilience in the Sub-Himalayan Region: The Case of the Brahmaputra.”
Participants highlighted that the massive hydroelectric project in Tibet’s Medog County, aimed at generating 60,000 MW, could potentially act as a “water bomb” if not carefully monitored. Claude Arpi, noted author and Tibetologist, initiated the dialogue by stating that China’s ambitions go beyond power generation, as it allegedly plans to divert the Tsangpo’s waters to the Yellow River via a vast network of tunnels.
Arunachal Pradesh MP Tapir Gao echoed these concerns, likening the proposed dam to a strategic weapon. Referring to the 2000 Siang river floods, he warned that sudden water releases could again wreak havoc downstream. Gao also supported building a dam on the Siang river in Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate potential risks from upstream activities.
Bertil Linter, expert in Asian politics, contextualised the issue within China’s historical pattern of damming major rivers originating in Tibet, including 11 mega dams on the Mekong. He advocated for a formal water-sharing agreement between India and China, warning that the absence of such a pact could spark bilateral tensions.
Dr. Ranbir Singh, Chairman of the Brahmaputra Board, described the Brahmaputra Basin as India’s only water-surplus river system. He questioned whether the proposed dam could turn the basin water-deficient, and called for a multi-pronged strategy, including international engagement, scientific research, and public diplomacy.
A technical session led by Prof. Anamika Baruah from IIT Guwahati drew attention to climate models predicting increased wet days upstream and more dry spells downstream, potentially exacerbated by damming activities. She stressed the absence of India-China collaborative studies and urged immediate national and international attention to the issue.
Experts from Nepal and Bhutan, along with scholars, engineers, ecologists, legal experts, and policymakers, also participated. The event aimed to foster regional cooperation and push for environmental safeguards amidst the dual threats of aggressive infrastructural development and climate change.
Asian Confluence Director Dr. Sabyasachi Dutta summarised the key takeaway, stating that India must invest in evidence-based scientific studies to counter China’s narrative and mobilise international support. He underscored the need for such initiatives to shape strategic responses before policy space is lost.
The seminar forms part of Asian Confluence’s broader mission on water diplomacy, following its successful hosting of the third NADI Dialogue in Guwahati.
